Quick answer: Blackjack insurance is a side bet that the dealer has blackjack when their up card is an ace. It pays 2 to 1, but in a six-deck game the dealer’s hole card is a ten only about 31% of the time, so insurance loses roughly 7 to 8% of what you put on it. “Even money” is the same bet offered when you hold a blackjack, and declining it is worth about 3.9% of your bet more on average (our calculations). For a player who is not counting cards, the answer is always no.
How Insurance Works
When the dealer’s face-up card is an ace, you are offered insurance before the dealer checks for blackjack. You can bet up to half your original stake. If the dealer has a ten-value card underneath (10, J, Q or K), insurance pays 2 to 1 and usually cancels out the loss on your main hand. If not, you lose the insurance bet and the hand plays on.
The name makes it sound like protection. It is really a separate bet on one question: is the hidden card a ten?
The Maths: Why Insurance Loses
A full deck has 16 ten-value cards out of 52, so about 30.8%. For insurance to break even at 2 to 1, the chance would need to be exactly one in three, 33.3%. It never is in a normal shoe, so every insurance bet has a negative expected value.
| Situation (six decks) | Chance the hole card is a ten | Expected loss on the insurance bet |
|---|---|---|
| Your two cards are not tens | 31.1% | 6.8% |
| One of your cards is a ten | 30.7% | 7.8% |
| Infinite deck (for comparison) | 30.8% | 7.7% |
Our calculations count the dealer’s ace and your two cards as removed from 312 cards. Compare those losses with the main game: with basic strategy, blackjack’s house edge is usually well under 1%. Insurance is many times worse, which is why it belongs with the other casino side bets rather than with good strategy.
Worked Example in Pesos
You bet ₱500 and the dealer shows an ace. You take full insurance for ₱250.
- About 31% of the time the dealer has blackjack: insurance pays ₱500 and your ₱500 hand loses, so you break even.
- About 69% of the time the dealer does not: you lose the ₱250 insurance and the hand plays on as normal.
Across many hands, the ₱250 insurance costs you about ₱17 to ₱19 each time you take it (our calculation). It never makes your main hand better. It only swaps a small, rare loss for a steady, larger one.
Even Money: The Same Bet in Disguise
If you hold a blackjack and the dealer shows an ace, the dealer often offers “even money”: a guaranteed 1 to 1 payout now instead of the usual 3 to 2. It feels safe, and many players take it every time.
Even money is exactly the same as taking full insurance on your blackjack. On a ₱1,000 bet:
- Take even money: you get ₱1,000 profit, guaranteed.
- Decline: about 69% of the time the dealer has no blackjack and you win ₱1,500. About 31% of the time it is a push and you win nothing. On average that is about ₱1,039.
Declining is worth about ₱39 more per ₱1,000 on average (our calculation). Even money is only “safe” in the sense that it removes variance, and you pay for that. Our guide to expected value explains why the average, not the single result, is what matters over time.
When Insurance Can Be Right
Only when more than one third of the cards left in the shoe are tens. Card counters track this and take insurance when the count is high. In online RNG blackjack the cards are reshuffled every hand, so that never happens, and in live dealer games with continuous shufflers or deep cuts it is rare. See does card counting work online? for why.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I take insurance with a strong hand like 20?
No. Insurance is a bet on the dealer’s hidden card, not on your hand. Holding two tens actually lowers the chance the dealer has one, which makes insurance slightly worse.
Is even money ever a good idea?
Not on expected value. It lowers your average return by about 3.9% of the bet. The only reason to take it is if you cannot afford the swing of a push, and then the bet size itself is too large.
Do live dealer and online games offer insurance?
Most do, with the same 2 to 1 payout. The maths is the same, so the answer is the same. See live dealer vs RNG games for how the formats compare.
Final Thoughts
Insurance and even money are sold as protection, but they are side bets with an edge of around 7% against you. Decline them, stick to basic strategy, and the house edge on your blackjack stays where it belongs, well under 1%. Our blackjack strategy guide covers the decisions that do move the odds.
Gambling is for adults aged 21 and over and always carries the risk of losing money, so only play with what you can afford to lose. If gambling has stopped being entertainment, our responsible gambling page lists the support available in the Philippines.